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10 ideas of what a smart future will look like

By

Neville Hobson

•

Dilbert

This is the time of year when predictions about what we can expect to see in 2016 for a raft of technologies and behaviours, and what they can do in and for business, come thick and fast. There are just over 50 days until New Year’s Day 2016!

Of the reports, articles and blog posts I’ve seen so far, one by Gartner especially piqued my interest mostly due to the provocativeness of some of the predictions that cover more than 2016, extending out five years to the end of 2020.

Here they are:

  1. By 2018, 20 percent of business content will be authored by machines.
  2. By 2018, six billion connected things will be requesting support.
  3. By 2020, autonomous software agents outside of human control will participate in five percent of all economic transactions.
  4. By 2018, more than 3 million workers globally will be supervised by a “robo-boss.”
  5. By year-end 2018, 20 percent of smart buildings will have suffered from digital vandalism.
  6. By 2018, 45 percent of the fastest-growing companies will have fewer employees than instances of smart machines.
  7. By year-end 2018, customer digital assistant will recognize individuals by face and voice across channels and partners.
  8. By 2018, two million employees will be required to wear health and fitness tracking devices as a condition of employment.
  9. By 2020, smart agents will facilitate 40 percent of mobile interactions, and the post-app era will begin to dominate.
  10. Through 2020, 95 percent of cloud security failures will be the customer’s fault.

You can read a little more about each item in Gartner’s press release.

Gartner sums up its key findings thus:

The relationships between machines and people are becoming increasingly competitive, as smart machines acquire the capabilities to perform more and more daily activities.

“Smartness” is now everywhere in the work environment, with consequences that are difficult for enterprise decision makers to foresee.

The Nexus of Forces is evolving and expanding into an entirely new set of scenarios.

Gartner describes the Nexus of Forces as “the convergence and mutual reinforcement of social, mobility, cloud and information patterns that drive new business scenarios.” Clear?

While all of Gartner’s ten predictions are credible views into a likely landscape during the five years between now and the end of 2020, three in particular strike me as likelier to happen in this period than not:

  • By 2018, more than three million workers globally will be supervised by a “robo-boss.”
  • By 2018, two million employees will be required to wear health and fitness tracking devices as a condition of employment.
  • By 2020, smart agents will facilitate 40 percent of mobile interactions, and the post-app era will begin to dominate.

What do you see as credible, likelier than not by 2018-2020, from the list of ten?

(Dilbert cartoon at top via Dilbert.com.)

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57 responses to “10 ideas of what a smart future will look like”

  1. The rise of the cognitive PR machines – NevilleHobson.com

    […] its list of ten predictions of an algorithmic and smart machine-driven world that the analyst firm published last […]

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